June Jumps Around

Single family sales in Greenwich, CT appeared to jump around wildly in June. In Riverside sales volume was up a whopping 269% on a 58% increase in the number of sales. While Riverside benefitted from seven additional sales in the month of June as compared to June of last year, Cos Cob was down seven sales as compared to a strong prior year resulting in a 43% drop in sales and 56% drop in volume.

I have often warned about focusing too narrowly on segmented monthly sales in Greenwich, which includes Greenwich, Cos Cob, Riverside and Old Greenwich. June is a key example. Even during the peak selling season when closings are high, limited changes in sales and a few high ticket sales can have dramatic effects on growth indicators. While peak season numbers certainly have a large impact on longer term trends, the degree of growth in monthly numbers can be misleading and should not be relied upon as future indicators of growth or decline.

Year to Date: A More Consistent and Still Positive View

Looking beyond monthly volatility to mid-year numbers, we see a more realistic growth picture emerges. Year to date, single family sales volume is up 14% on a 7% increase in the number of sales over the same period last year. Median and average sales prices are up 5%. Riverside volume is up a strong 48% on a 24% increase in the number of sales. Greenwich is up 17% in both volume and sales. Cos Cob is down half as much as its June numbers would indicate and Old

Greenwich is down 10% as compared to the same period last year. As has been the longer term trend, sales in the lower end of the range are selling more frequently and more quickly than luxury homes.

Mary Stuart
20 years professional real estate advice.
Mary Stuart G Freydberg, Sotheby's International Realty
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